A new study published today in Geophysical Research Letters by Rahmstorf and Foster of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research presents the first statistically robust evidence that global warming has measurably accelerated since 2015.
The Core Finding
The warming rate over the past decade stands at approximately 0.35°C per decade — nearly double the 0.2°C per decade recorded between 1970 and 2015, and the highest rate since instrumental records began in 1880. The acceleration is consistent across five independent datasets: NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, and ERA5, with statistical certainty exceeding 98%.
What the Analysis Did
Short-term natural variability — El Niño cycles, volcanic eruptions, solar fluctuations — routinely obscures long-term trends. By stripping these out systematically, the authors expose the underlying warming signal far more clearly than raw temperature records allow. Two independent statistical methods — quadratic trend analysis and piecewise linear regression — both identify the shift beginning around 2013–2014. Even after adjustment, 2023 and 2024 remain the two warmest years on record.
Why This Matters
The study does not investigate the causes of acceleration, but the implications are stark. If this rate persists, global mean temperature will exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold before 2030. The outcome depends entirely on how rapidly global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are reduced to zero.
The science is clear. The pace has changed. The question now is whether policy will catch-up, let alone keep up.
Read the research article here.
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