In this ClimateGenn episode I am discussing the forecast 2026 El Niño event with Dr Jennifer Francis from the Woodwell Climate Research Centre in the US. I don’t mind admitting my heart sank a little when I heard the news of the forthcoming el Niño.
The intensity of climate induced extremes that life on earth has been experiencing in recent years, coupled with the negligence and, in many cases, gross degenerate policymaking, has set us up to be woefully unprepared for the climate extremes we can expect later this year. Jennifer gives us the detail on this but always remember that this is a crisis that we are continuing to worsen by not cutting greenhouse gas emissions at the fastest rate possible.
Also available on Spotify and all other podcast channels.
Transcript:
Jennifer Francis – El Nino 2026 Is Really bad News!
[Nick Breeze]
Jennifer, it’s great to see you again. Thank you very much for speaking to me. We’re speaking because of this announcement of a forthcoming El Niño, and we’ve spoken about these before in the past.
From your perspective, what is different about the El Niño forecast for later this year, maybe compared with the last one we talked about, or the one before that, in terms of where we are in climate change?
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
Yeah, so El Niños and La Niñas are natural fluctuations in the ocean temperatures off the west coast of Ecuador, South America. It’s kind of a tongue of water that extends across the equator area of the Pacific, and we know this fluctuation happens on a semi-regular basis. But as you say, the backdrop for this fluctuation has changed a lot over the last several decades, as we’ve trapped a lot of heat in the ocean because of all the extra greenhouse gases that are in the atmosphere.
So now, you know, the influence of El Niño, La Niña cycles, I think has weakened because we also are seeing these massive ocean heat waves in other places. So El Niño is basically an ocean heat wave, but there are huge ocean heat waves that have developed in the North Pacific, which is really the main area that is probably affecting the interaction of the ENSO, which is the combination of El Niño and La Niña fluctuations. So a great example was the three years in a row of La Niña a few years ago.
Typically, La Niñas cause drier than normal conditions along the west coast of the U.S. and North America, mostly U.S. And the first two years of that La Niña were pretty much what you’d expect for La Niña conditions. It was dry in the western states. But that third La Niña coincided with a huge, very intense ocean heat wave in the North Pacific, and it basically dominated the influence of La Niña.
And instead, we had record-breaking precipitation along, especially California, but inland from there too. So I think that we are seeing, as I said, a decreased influence of these ENSO cycles being dominated by not only the intensity, but the position of these ocean heat waves in the North Pacific. And so even though we’re in La Niña conditions right now, we’ve seen some really strong storms hitting the west coast, but intermittently with very dry, warm conditions.
So it’s been a really interesting winter for the western states, kind of interspersed epic atmospheric rivers, snow in the Sierras, but overall it’s been very dry and warm, which is consistent with La Niña. But as we head into what we think is going to be a strong El Niño, which is the opposite of that, where we have a lot of warm water sticking across the equatorial region of the Pacific, that generally has the influence of storminess along the west coast, but it also tends to boost global temperatures. So most El Niño events, we also see a big boost in the global average temperature.
So this is really bad news because we’re already running very close to record warm temperatures for the globe, and you put a strong El Niño on top of that, and we’re almost certainly going to break a new global heat record.
[Nick Breeze]
Wow, and so if you put everything you’ve just said in terms of these extremes and the potential for new heat records, does this suggest, and I’ve heard this in other places, there’s a suggested acceleration of climate change, of climate impacts. Is this what you, would you characterise it like that?
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
El Niños tend to cause spikes in the global temperature, not so much an overall acceleration. I mean, that said, there is, I think, evidence suggesting that we are accelerating the warming of the globe, but the El Niño cycles are superimposed on top of that. So I think the trend is really more about all of the heat that’s being trapped in the ocean generally, and the emergence of these ocean heat waves all around, not just the North Pacific, but you can look at the South, Southern oceans and the Atlantic, and pretty much everywhere now you can find ocean heat waves that are really off the charts.
So I think that’s a bigger factor in contributing to this suggestion of a trend in the global temperatures.
[Nick Breeze]
As we do sort of reach these new temperatures all the time, and as you say, this creates a spike, and a spike on top of the gradual warming or accelerating, gradual, whatever, kind of implies that we’re getting closer to these thresholds and tipping points that people talk about. And some of them are just to do with our ability to respond to what’s going on now. We’ve seen terrible flooding just recently across Europe and in the US, you’ve got all these insane storms.
Do you think we’re getting closer to a sort of social threshold? It’s getting very hard for insurance companies, people to be able to keep bouncing back, even food production is under a lot of pressure. Are these the sort of silent things that our society is probably not talking about enough in terms of what we can expect from this forthcoming El Niño, for example?
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
Absolutely. I mean, I think we never talk about it enough, in my opinion, because it is getting worse. And more and more people are being affected directly, either in their communities, through infrastructure destruction, because of storms or drought or fire, whatever it is, but also their insurance rates, their food prices, their ability to travel.
I mean, it affects people in all kinds of ways, in different places, in different ways. And so, I think bringing the discussion to a more local level, so people can relate to it directly, is a really important part of the communication challenge. And so, we need more people who are able to talk about these impacts in a scientifically correct way, but people like you are doing just that.
But I do think we need to bring it to the local level, because when people hear, oh, the Earth is reaching the tipping point or the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, it doesn’t sound so bad. In a lot of places, people would welcome that warming. But when you start talking about certain agricultural sectors really struggling, of course, fires and drought and the kinds of storms, the intensification of hurricanes and the different paths they’re taking and the storms that you’re facing in the UK this winter, the extreme flooding that we’ve been seeing all around the world in various places, bringing that home to people, I think is really important. And then making the connection, connecting those dots to why that kind of extreme event, whatever it is, has fingerprints of the climate crisis on it.
[Nick Breeze]
There was also one thing that you discussed last time, you said you were concerned about ecosystems and biodiversity that was going to be impacted from the coastlines from all these heat spikes. And that really played out. And it played out where I am here with dead dolphins all along the coast.
And even over this winter, last week, we saw 15 dead Atlantic puffins along the beach as we went for a walk. And you’re starting to see this nature pressure. I mean, you’re talking about the ocean, the heat waves, presumably, that’s going to be another factor that’s just swept up in this next year.
These are huge changes and we’re having to cope with and nature’s having to cope with. Are these even reversible? I mean, I don’t know where we’re going with all of this, because it just seems so incredible when you look at the temperature anomalies in the oceans.
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
Yeah, the heat in the oceans is a huge factor, but it’s not the only one. There’s acidification. And so as we put more carbon dioxide, methane into the atmosphere, the ocean absorbs that, and it turns it into an acid in the water.
And so that’s making the oceans more acidic, which is making it harder for creatures that have shells made out of carbonate to form. So that’s a huge factor. Of course, other forms of pollution that we’re putting into the oceans, whether it’s runoff from agriculture, the nitrogen pollution, phosphate pollution, those are having some big impacts, especially along coastlines at the sources of those.
And overfishing, just kind of changing the whole marine food web by extracting a whole species in some areas or the largest ones. And so we’re doing all kinds of things to the ecological systems around the globe that are having a very negative impact in lots of places. And the examples that you describe are really heartbreaking, but they’re also heart-wrenching for people to see and to hear about.
And so it’s another way to reach people who really care about the natural world where they live.
[Nick Breeze]
You mentioned the acidification, and I spoke to the local ecologists who work here. And the fishermen are losing their jobs because the mussels can’t connect to the seaweeds disappeared. So the whole ecosystem is broken down and the rocks are all and that impacts jobs and then that’s spreading down the coast.
And it’s the impacts of material. You can see it, you can see it in the economy.
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
But it’s important to connect those events to why it’s happening. It’s us, it’s our fault. We’re doing this.
And you mentioned, is this reversible? Some of it is. Yeah, we can reverse some of it because some of those practises like overfishing and the pollution, certain kinds of pollution, we can rein in.
And so we can make a difference. Ocean heat waves, not so much because we’re still continuing to build up the heat trapping gases in the atmosphere, which is exactly the wrong direction. We need to be not just levelling it off, but we really need to start reducing that concentration that has built up over decades and decades in the atmosphere.
So the developed countries are mainly responsible for that because it does accumulate over time while we’re seeing some improvement in special European countries, somewhat in the United States. But it’s really that dumping of these gases into the atmosphere over long periods of time that have created this problem. So it’s really on us to really take the lead in fixing it.
[Nick Breeze]
I went to a conference last year, the end of last year in Finland, and they were talking about interventions. We’ve discussed this before. And there’s a lot of, I don’t want to say enthusiasm, that’s the wrong word.
There’s a lot of people, ideas, British government have invested heavily into research. So is there anything there that you think is encouraging in terms of that could potentially buy time while we try and get these emissions things under control?
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
The only one that I feel is worth pursuing is figuring out how to stop deforestation. And forests are our best natural solution to extracting greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Not only do we need to stop cutting forest down, but we need to start planting more.
We’ve got to stop cutting down mangrove swamps because they are another great natural solution. Wetlands, got to stop filling those. These are all the natural ways that mother nature keeps a balance in the atmosphere of these greenhouse gases.
So to me, that is the proven and simplest way to have some lever to try to decrease the amount of these gases in the atmosphere. I think a lot of the technological solutions that are being pursued are so far down the road that we need a solution right now. We can’t wait 30 years for this technology to mature and scale up to the point where it can actually do something.
So that’s where I come down.
[Nick Breeze]
In the context of everything we’ve been talking about, really, if you take all of these impacts, all of these things we’re seeing happening, and we’re talking about potential for temperature records this year, later this year, the government’s talking about expanding military spending. And that’s the focus. There’s increased 5% or whatever across Europe.
And so in Spain, the government has pushed back and said, well, we’re having so much issue just responding to the climate impacts of flooding and so on and resilience. They’re saying we have to invest in that. That is national security.
Do you think this next El Nino, I mean, the impacts over the last couple of years, I’ve been talking to you about it, have been phenomenal in terms of the change, the step change. Do you think this one could actually change that dialogue if more people actually can join the dots, as you’re saying? It’s really to end on.
It’s just, it seems like we’re getting to that point where it’s so pronounced. It’s so visible. It’s so in everybody’s face now.
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
I think every time there’s a unprecedented, crazy extreme weather event, whatever it is, grabs a few more people, especially if it’s described and people can understand the connections to the increasing greenhouse gases playing a role in whatever that extreme event is. So it’s not just the event itself, but making it clear to people how we’re expecting these events to happen more often because of this new record-breaking temperature, partly driven by El Nino, which as I said, is a natural cycle, but it’s on top of what we’ve been doing for decades and decades. So I think every time there is an event like this, it does convince a few more people that, okay, we have a huge problem here.
And especially if their brother in Spain or whatever is being affected by it, and they are personally connected to whatever the event is. So every time that happens, I think we went over a few more people in understanding a little more of the science and a little more of our responsibility in fixing the problem.
[Nick Breeze]
Well, let’s keep our fingers crossed for big changes on the social side. Thank you very much. It’s been great to speak to you and get a good update.
[Dr Jennifer Francis]
My pleasure. Anytime, Nick. Great to see you.